🏁 Channels Scorecard FORWARD-ONLY · PAPER

The honest scoreboard. Every frozen thesis graded forward-only against three baselines on identical windows (random, daily-score, buy-hold SPY). Win rate carries a Wilson 95% CI; nothing is a proven edge under the sample gate. No orders, ever.

Graded (n)

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Win rate

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Mean R

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Edge vs SPY

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Significant?

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🎯

Edge vs baselines (mean R delta)

vs random: —

vs daily-score: —

vs SPY: —

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Conviction calibration

Mean realized R per conviction decile. Populates once theses are graded.

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Per emitter × regime

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Emitter	Regime	n	Win%	Mean R	Edge vs daily	Sig
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